The seizure of a Polish plane by Belarusian security forces is a slap in the face of the West.

There is no need for hypocritical phrases about violations of international norms and rules. They were always violated if deemed necessary. The USSR sent troops to the “socialist countries” of Europe, and the USA – to the countries of Latin America. But Czechoslovakia did not bring tanks to Moscow, and Chile did not organize a military coup in the United States. And they hijacked the plane, looking for Snowden there, but the Americans are Bolivian, not the American Bolivians. And not because the Bolivians are somehow better than the Americans or something worse; but because the ace beats the six, and not the six of the ace, because the pawn cannot defeat the queen, because the United States is an order of magnitude stronger than Bolivia, and the USSR was an order of magnitude stronger than Czechoslovakia or Hungary.

In addition to aces and sixes, there are other cards in the deck from sevens to kings. Sometimes even jokers come across. And in chess there are both rooks and minor pieces. And among the states there were and are powers of the most different caliber. China, Vietnam or Cuba also allowed themselves a lot of things. And if Che Guevara broke off in Congo and Bolivia, then the victory of the MPLA over UNITA in Angola or Ethiopia over Somalia in the Horn of Africa is a consequence of Cuba’s military assistance. And Vietnam shot down American Phantoms over Hanoi. But Vietnamese MIGs did not fly over Washington. And when planes hijacked by Islamists crashed into the twin towers, the answer was the elimination of Bin Laden. For what is allowed to Jupiter is not allowed to the bull, and it was necessary to show who Jupiter is in the world by killing an overly presumptuous bull. If the United States wiped out, they would risk turning from an ace to a queen, or even jack.

Poland is certainly not an ace or even a king. But it is far from being a six. And if Belarus is an ally of the Russian Federation, then Poland is a member of NATO. And the West has the power to punish Belarus very cruelly. There would be a desire. But with this – it is much more difficult. Not only war, but even tough sanctions are associated with a lot of inconveniences – losses in trade, etc. And the West is used to conveniences and does not want to give up on them. Therefore, he reacts so slowly to Krymnash and to ichtamnets in Donbass (despite the fact that he continues to consider both Donbass and Crimea as part of Ukraine). Therefore, NATO only accepts those for whom, perhaps, it will be necessary to fit in in the future, but in now – certainly not necessary. Let us also recall that in both world wars the Russian Empire and the USSR got involved almost immediately, and the United States only after one of the parties began to sink their ships. True, the United States is overseas, what does Europe and Asia mean to her? But Western European countries were already reluctant to enter World War II.

Anyone who is well acquainted with ancient history knows: often more advanced ancient countries unexpectedly found themselves victims of more backward ones. Greece was conquered by Macedonia, the Hellenistic countries and Carthage by the Roman Republic, and the late Roman Empire was destroyed by the barbarians. This is explained by the fact that in the countries of “ancient capitalism” technical progress, which increased their power, was not only balanced, but even outweighed by social regression, which weakened this power. Phillip the Macedonian said that any Greek city could take a donkey laden with gold – bribery replaced it with an assault. And Hannibal, who did not suffer a single defeat in Italy, in the end was left without an army, because the Carthaginian oligarchs feared him more than Rome and did not send reinforcements. And in the last years of the Roman Empire, its legions were not made up of Romans,

We see a similar picture today. I do not think that Lukashenka would have dared to hijack a Turkish plane. And you can laugh as much as you like at the Russians sitting in spectacled toilets and proud of the Iskander, but the rise of the Roman Republic came at a time when the Roman consuls believed that it was better to eat turnips, but to instill fear in neighbors than to eat delicacies, but to be considered a weakling 
 And the decay of Rome began when the Roman aristocrats began to gorge themselves on pate from nightingale tongues. True, this decay continued for several more centuries, during which the Empire managed to expand substantially. So one shouldn’t think that tomorrow “Kuzya” will sink the American aircraft carriers. Moreover, the Russian Federation has also experienced social regression. And yet the trend is evident. And Lukashenka feels it. He does not understand, namely, he feels. Gut.

I don’t know how Europe will behave. If it crumbles, it will become for her the omission and the beginning of the end. Or for European liberalism – maybe, over time, their own Putin and Erdogans will begin to come to power in European countries, capable of laying siege to Putin or Luka “like a boy.” If he reacts harshly enough, this will affect primarily Lukashenka (although Putin is most likely behind this). Perhaps he will become more dependent on the Russian Federation and Putin will finally turn him into a vassal. Perhaps the chances of Nord Stream will grow – after all, this is another way to pump fuel from the Russian Federation, bypassing Belarus.

Putin is not forever. After his death, either there is not a single such a bright charismatic person in the Russian Federation that he could quickly and unconditionally overcome other applicants for the role of Putin’s successor, and bickering and unrest will begin; or Navalny will become the only charismatic. In the first case, the Russian Federation will not be up to Lukashenka at all, and he will be left alone with the West. In the second, given that “Crimea is not a sandwich,” Luka is most likely to be in the role of a sandwich (that is, as a substitute for at least partial lifting of sanctions). But this, if the West does not wipe out, because otherwise, the West may have no time for Luke, even when he is left without cover.

Finally, perhaps, we should express sympathy to the captured (although they are not my adherents) and note that it was a big mistake on their part to fly through Belarus. With all the surprise of what happened, the likelihood of it could be admitted, especially since, according to media reports, Protasevich noticed surveillance back in Athens. More experienced fighters also fell into the clutches of the Belarusian security forces, but they found themselves in a much more difficult situation for them. And when I was in Greece to return to Lithuania through Belarus, I repeat, it was a mistake. Let this at least be a lesson to others. The enemy is strong and dangerous, otherwise he simply would not have been able to get to such power.